Growing-Stock Harvests and Consumption

Projections of future roundwood harvests and consumption show continuing incremental increases in both areas, with overall increases of about 15 percent forecast for the period 1997-2030 (Figure 47). Harvests are expected to change little throughout the North Central and Northeast sub-regions, with most of the increase in hardwood harvest projected to occur in the South Central sub-region, and to a lesser extent in the Southeast (Figure 48). All of the increased harvest is expected to occur on non-industrial private

lands (Figure 49).        Figure 47

U.S. Hardwood Roundwood Harvests,
Consumption, Imports, and Exports, 1986 to
1997, with Projections to 2030

 

 

RPA Timber Assessment 2001, Table 3-5 as reported by Cubbage 2003.

Figure 48
Hardwood Growing-Stock Removals in Eastern Sub-Regions, 1970-1997, with
Projections to 2050. Historical Data are Estimates.

Source: Haynes 2003.

 

Figure 49
Eastern Hardwood Growing-Stock Removals by Region and Private Owner, 1970-1997,
With Projections to 2050. Historical Data are Estimates.

Source: Haynes 2003.

Only a little over one-third of the increase in the hardwood harvest rate in the South region is expected to be driven by market demand. Some twelve percent of forestland supporting hardwoods is forecast to be lost to urbanization and conversion to agriculture, and by conversion of current hardwood stands, and particularly oak-hickory stands, to southern pine plantations (Haynes 2003). This can be seen in projections of planted southern pine acres and the projected acreage in natural pine, oak-pine, and hardwoods through 2050 (Figures 50-53). The greatest loss in southern hardwood forest is expected to occur within the upland hardwoods (Figure 43).

Figure 50
Southern Planted Pine Acres Projected by Owner and Management Intensity Class
Showing Three Points in Time (All Sites)

Source: Haynes 2003.

 

Figure 51
Southern Acres of Natural Pine, Oak-Pine, and Hardwoods Projected by Owner and
Management Intensity Class Showing Three Points in Time (All Sites)

Source: Haynes 2003.

Figure 52
Area of Forest Cover on Private Timberlands in the South, 1995-2050

Source: Haynes 2003.

The anticipated conversion of upland hardwoods to pine plantations can be visualized more easily in Figure 44. Here the loss of upland hardwood is seen to mirror gains in planted pine acreage. This figure also provides an historical perspective to the situation. Note that the area of upland hardwood has expanded steadily through the latter half of the twentieth century. This expansion, coupled with growth of pine plantations, served to markedly reduce the area of natural pine. Anticipated changes will serve to restore the previous pine/hardwood balance albeit with planted rather than natural pine.

Figure 53
Private Timberland Area in the South by Forest Type,
1950-2050

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Source: Skog 2001.

Virtually all of the previously discussed increase in the hardwood growing-stock harvest is expected to be attributable to growth in pulpwood consumption (Figure 54). This development is depicted from the standpoint of production and over a longer time frame in Figure 55.

Figure 54
Hardwood Roundwood Consumption in the U.S.
with Projections to 2030

4

 

 

Source: RPA Timber Assessment 2001, Table 3-4 as reported by Cubbage 2003.

Again referring to Figure 54, projections indicate volume growth in all product categories with the exception of softwood plywood and miscellaneous solid wood products. However, more rapid growth in production of pulp, paper and paperboard and of wood composites will have the effect of reducing slightly the percentages of total wood production accounted for by hardwood and softwood lumber, veneer, and plywood; pulp, paper, and paperboard and wood composite products are expected to comprise 70 percent of forest products production on a mass basis in 2050 compared to 67 percent in 1997.

 

Figure 55
U.S. Production of Forest Products by Category, 1965-1998, with Projections to 2050.

(Percentages are for Solid Wood; Composites [OSB, plywood, and veneer]; and pulp, paper, and
paperboard as a percentage of total production).

Source: Haynes 2003.

Hardwood Sawtimber Harvests and Lumber Consumption

Hardwood lumber production is projected to increase between 1997 and 2030 by about 15 percent, a percentage similar to that of harvest and consumption of hardwood roundwood (Figure 56). In this case, net exports are expected to rise, while imports remain flat. The same trend projection can be seen in Figure 46 and over a longer time frame.

Figure 56
U.S. Hardwood Lumber Production,
Consumption, Imports, and Exports, 1986-1996,
with Projections to 2030

 

RPA Timber Assessment 2001, Table App 3-2 as reported by Cubbage 2003.

 

The projected rise in hardwood lumber exports and continuation of a net import trend can be clearly seen in Figure 57; also evident is the projected slow growth in hardwood lumber production. The effects of declining hardwood forest area in the South show up in projections of future hardwood lumber production by sub-region (Figure 58) as the volumes produced in the South Central drop rapidly after 2020.

Figure 57
U.S. Production and Consumption of Hardwood Lumber, 1970-1997, with Projections to
2050

Source: Haynes 2003.

Figure 58
U.S. Hardwood Lumber Production by Sub-Region with Projections to 2050

Source: Haynes 2003.

Because of more rapid growth of non-solid-wood-products as discussed previously and as shown in Figure 55, the form of raw materials used to supply industry needs is expected to change as well (Figure 59). For example, it is anticipated that the volume of hardwood and softwood non-sawtimber needed to supply the domestic industry will increase at a

faster rate than raw material classed as sawtimber. In addition, greater use of recycled fiber and of imported wood products is foreseen.

Figure 59
Material Sources of U.S. Forest Product Consumption and Exports by Timber Type,
1975-1998, with Projections to 2050.

(Percentages are for sawtimber and non-sawtimber as a percentage of roundwood supply).

Source: Haynes 2003.

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