As noted earlier, growth/removals ratios for U.S. hardwoods have long been positive (i.e. well above 1.0). For the nation as a whole, this trend is expected to continue through at least 2050 (Figure 60). However, the margin between growth and removals began to narrow in the early 1990s, and this trend is projected to continue period such that only a slightly positive growth to removals balance remains by the end of the projection period. Much the same scenario is envisioned for the North (Figure 61). For the South, though, a much different picture is forecast (Figure 62). In this case decreasing growth (on decreasing acres) coupled with sharply increasing removals rates are expected to bring what is now a strongly positive growth/removals ratio to one that is negative (below 1.0) by 2020. In the West region, where growth rates are only a fraction of those in the North and South regions, annual growth is expected to remain well above the rate of annual removals. Increases in annual harvest are anticipated beginning in 2010 or earlier that will serve to reduce the margin between net growth and removals. In all regions, net annual growth will peak within the next several decades, and then begin to decline as the average age of stands increases and as declines in hardwood acreage occur in some areas.

 

Figure 60
Net Annual Growth and Removals for U.S.
Hardwoods, 1952-1997, with Projections to 2050

Source: Haynes 2003

Figure 62
Net Annual Growth and Removals for
Hardwoods, U.S. South Region 1952-1997, with
Projections to 2050

Figure 61
Net Annual Growth and Removals for
Hardwoods, U.S. North Region 1952-1997, with
Projections to 2050

 

'52 '62 '72 '76 '86 '91 '97 '10 '20 '30 '40 '50

Source: Haynes 2003

Figure 63
Net Annual Growth and Removals for
Hardwoods, U.S. West Region 1952-1997, with
Projections to 2050

 

 

 

Source: Haynes 2003        Source: Haynes 2003

Anticipated net annual growth and removals trends in all regions suggests rising hardwood inventories nationally through at least 2030 (Figure 64). However, the decline in net annual growth in all regions in combination with rising rates of removals, particularly in the South, will halt growth of hardwood inventories nationally after 2030.

Figure 64
Hardwood Inventory for the U.S., 1976-1997,
with Projections to 2050

Source: Haynes 2003

The various factors at play within different hardwood regions will impact the hardwood inventory not only in terms of wood volume, but also with respect to the future age class distribution. In the North, the effect of continuing surplus annual growth will be to shift hardwood age classes toward a more even distribution, with a greater portion of forest area in older age timber (Figure 65). The area defined by age classes 5 to 75 will decline, while those of age 90 and up will increase. In the South, on the other hand, the combination of rising removals, loss of hardwood-supporting forest land, and conversion to pine plantations will have the effect of reducing significantly the number of acres supporting hardwoods of 45 years of age and older (except for stands 95+ years) and increasing the number of acres on which hardwoods 15 to 35 years of age dominate (Figure 66). As noted previously, this has long-term implications for sawtimber availability in the South region.

Figure 65
Age Class Distribution for all Hardwood Forest Types on
Timberland in the U.S. North

Source: Haynes 2003

Figure 66
Age Class Distribution for all Hardwood Forest Types on
Timberland in the U.S. South

Source: Haynes 2003

Price Trends

Prices within any commodity market are sensitive to a myriad of factors, including raw material availability, domestic and international production capacity, and consumption. Price trends that rise more sharply than the consumer price index over an extended period of time generally indicate pressure in one or more of these areas.

 

Historical data (left side of Figure 67), shows relatively modest real increases in hardwood sawtimber prices from the early 1980s to early 1990s, but sharp increases in both the North and South from the early 1990s onward. Data over a longer time frame is presented in Tables 14 and 15.

Figure 67
Hardwood Sawtimber Stumpage Price for Principal
Producing Regions in 1982 Dollars Per Thousand
Board Feet (Int. 1/4 inch)

Source: Haynes 2003.

Table 14
Indices of Deflated Prices (1982 constant dollar) for Hardwood Lumber, U.S.,
1952-1999, with Projections to 2050

Source: Haynes 2003

 

Table 15
Deflated Stumpage Prices (1982 dollars) for Hardwood Sawtimber and Pulpwood for the
U.S. North and South Regions, 1962-1997, with Projections to 2050

Hardwood Sawtimber ($/Mbf Int. 1/4 inch)

Source: Haynes 2003

Increasing prices are generally attributable to the domestic housing and remodeling markets that remained very strong through the latest recession and to renewed consumer affinity for hardwood flooring and other products. Log supplies in the North are reported to be tight, contributing to rising prices (Hardwood Review Weekly, 2004). [Charlotte, NC, Feb. 13, vol 20, issue 13, p. 16.]

Hardwood sawtimber stumpage price projections (right hand side of Figure 63 and of Table 15) show very modest increases in the North, but steeply rising prices in the South region after 2020 due to declining net annual growth.

Pulpwood prices in both the North and South regions (Table 15) fluctuated within a narrow range from 1962 to the early 1 990s, when significant increased were noted in the period 199 1-97 prior to the paper market crash of the late 1990s. Steady hardwood pulpwood prices are forecast for the North, but very steep price increases are foreseen in the South after 2020 as supply problems develop (Figure 68).

Figure 68

Real Prices for Southern Pulpwood Stumpage, Historical
and Projected (1986 dollars per cord)

Source: Haynes 2003

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